More insights
Co-founder, Chief Growth Officer
July 9, 2025 at 10:00 PM
Choosing how to pay isn’t just about preference. It’s also about context, and one of the most important, yet often overlooked, factors is basket size.
What works for a €20 impulse buy doesn’t necessarily work for a €1,200 investment. As the total amount increases, so does the level of expectation from the customer. This shift shows up clearly in how users behave in the checkout and in the payment methods they choose.
So we looked at the data.
We analysed thousands of completed checkout sessions and grouped them by order value. Then we looked at how payment behaviour changed across each basket range.
Here’s what stood out:
Apple Pay outperforms card in baskets below €250
Wallets & bank transfer solutions (like PayPal, iDEAL, Swish) remain strong in the €50-1000 range
BNPL usage increases sharply once the basket exceeds €250
Cards, while still common, lose their relative share as the amount grows
And the reason isn’t just preference. It’s psychology.
As the basket grows, so does the customer's sense of risk. With small purchases, speed and simplicity win. But as soon as the value crosses a certain threshold, people begin asking different questions:
Can I delay payment or split it up?
Is this payment method secure enough for a bigger amount?
Do I trust this site enough to pay upfront?
These are not edge cases. They are normal, rational behaviours. And they play out every day in e-commerce checkouts.
< €50: Speed over everything
At this level, friction is fatal. People want to pay with whatever is fastest, often a mobile wallet or saved card. In our data, Apple Pay was more commonly selected than manual card entry in this range.
External research backs this up. Shopify reports that accelerated payment options like Apple Pay can increase conversion by up to 50% . Baymard also notes that forcing users to type card numbers adds unnecessary friction, especially for small orders.
€50-250: The middle ground
In this range, cards, bank transfer and wallets share the stage. Some users still prioritise speed, others start to weigh trust and familiarity more heavily. Wallets like PayPal and iDEAL often win out due to perceived safety and habit.
This is also where we see early adoption of pay-later options: shoppers who are on the fence may choose to delay payment to ease the decision.
€250-1000: Flexibility becomes key
Once baskets exceed €250, BNPL usage rises sharply in our data. At this point, shoppers aren’t just checking out; they’re making a financial decision. Pay now, or pay later?
Services like Klarna, Afterpay, Alma, and others capture a growing share here, especially for products like electronics, home goods, and travel. A Mastercard study confirms that BNPL increases average order value and purchase likelihood, not just by making it more affordable, but by making it feel more manageable.
> €1000: Reassurance and risk reduction
At this level, trust trumps everything. We’ll dig into this more in Part 2, but suffice it to say: the payment method shown first matters more than ever.
If the default feels wrong, or worse, fails at the last step, it can kill the conversion entirely.
If your checkout always shows the same payment methods, in the same order, no matter what the customer is buying, you’re missing an opportunity.
Because as basket size changes, so does customer behaviour.
The right strategy?
Highlight trusted wallets for small and mid-size baskets
Bring BNPL options forward when the order exceeds €250
Don’t assume card is the safest bet for every order
Checkout isn’t one-size-fits-all. The amount matters.
Basket size is a powerful predictor of payment behaviour
Apple Pay beats card for small baskets due to lower friction
Wallets provide trust and ease across mid-range purchases
BNPL becomes dominant above €250
Checkout logic should adapt not just to user profile or location, but to order value
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